**WHY HONG KONG’S FALLING SALES

DO NOT NECESSARILY SIGNAL ECONOMIC DETERIORATION

1.INTRODUCTION

Hong Kong’s retail sales are falling.

Every month, newspapers headline the decline.

Readers immediately assume the worst:

“The economy is deteriorating.”

But this conclusion is too simple.

Retail figures tell a story – just not the whole story.

Hong Kong’s consumption landscape is changing fast.

Technology, cross border choices, shifting lifestyles, and new spending habits are rewriting how people use their money.

People are not spending less.

They are spending differently.

Many of today’s biggest spending categories don’t even appear in retail statistics:

·       Digital subscriptions

·       Online entertainment

·       Travel and experiences

·       Wellness and fitness

·       Education and professional courses

·       Medical and healthcare statistics

When money shifts from goods to services, retail sales fall.

But the economy may not be shrinking – it may just be evolving.

2. WHAT RETAIL STATISTICS REALLY MEASURE

The HKSAR Census and Statistics Department groups retail businesses into 19 outlet types:

·       Supermarkets

·       Department stores

·       Jewellery, watches & clocks & valuable gifts

·       Electrical goods & other consumer durable goods (not elsewhere classified)

·       Furniture & fixtures

·       Wearing apparel

·       Footwear, allied products & other clothing accessories

·       Medicines & cosmetics

·       Chinese drugs and herbs

·       Books, newspapers, stationery & gifts

·       Optical shops

·       Commodities in their specialised stores (other consumer goods not elsewhere classified)

·       Motor vehicles & partes

·       Fuels

·       Food, alcoholic drinks & tobacco

·       Food and drinks for immediate consumption (without seals)/takeaway outlets

·       Miscellaneous retail outlets

·       Retailing via non-store means (e-commerce/online)

·       Retailing of goods by other outlets/other retail outlet types

These categories capture goods sales only.  They have not included the fast-growing spending in services and the mass shift in cross-border consumption.  This is why retail sales gradually evolve to reflect only a slice of Hong Kong’s consumption picture.

3. WHY RETAIL SALES ARE FALLING – AND WHY IT DOESN’T MEAN COLLAPSE

(I)Changing Habits Are Reducing Traditional Retail Buying

Hong Kong consumers no longer shop the way they used to

EV adoption cuts fuel sales

One retail category – fuels – can be shrinking just because people drives electric cars.  Less petrol sales may point to weaker retail number even as EV sales rise.

Shopping is no longer a pastime

Minimalism and sustainability are replacing impulse buying.  People own fewer things, but invest in better quality.

Products last longer

Phones, electronics, and luxury goods are more durable.  Household and individual replacement tendency stretch out.

Cross-border online shopping is booming

Platforms liked Taobao, JD, Amazon, Xiaohongshu, and Temu deliver to your doorstep.  But if the seller is not a Hong Kong establishment, the transaction does not appear in retail statistics. Sales shift away and the numbers fall.

None of this means people are poorer.

It means they spend smarter and shop elsewhere.

(II)Spending is Moving Outside Hong Kong

Cross-border consumption is now a major force.

More travel = more overseas shopping

Japan, Korea, and Thailand are the three new shopping alleys for many HongKongers.

The Shenzhen effect

Weekend spending patterns now include massages, cafes, malls, haircuts, and dining at a fraction of Hong Kong prices.

Shenzhen is becoming Hong Kong’s “extended shopping district.”

E-Commerce imports do not count as retail sales

When HongKongers buy from mainland platforms, the spending is real – it just doesn’t show up in Hong Kong’s books.

Retail sales fall – but consumer spending doesn’t

(III)Tourists Are Spending Differently

Hong Kong’s retail boom in the 2000s relied heavily on one group:

Mainland shoppers buying luxury goods.

Today, tourists have changed.

·       They prefer experiences over shopping

·       Price gaps between Hong Kong and the Mainland have narrowed.

·       More Southeast Asian visitors come, and they spend less on luxury items

Luxury categories – jewellery, watches, and cosmetics – are large components of Hong Kong’s retail index.

When these cool down, the whole index drags down.

But this reflects new tourism patterns, not necessarily economic weakness.

(VI)Hong Kong’s Consumption Structure Is Changing

Hong Kong is moving from goods consumption to services consumption.

People now put more money into:

·       Healthcare

·       Education and tutoring

·       Wellness

·       Travel and hospitality

·       Professional services

They do not appear in the retail statistics.

4.CONCLUSION

Falling retail sales no long mean falling economic strength.

They show a different story – a story of change, not collapse.

Hong Kong’s retail figures are declining because:

·       Consumers are shopping across the borders

·       Spending is moving from goods to services

·       E-commerce imports bypass local retailers

·       Tourism pattern have shifted

·       Digital lifestyle are replacing physical consumption

Retail sales used to be a reliable indicator of economic health.

But today, they capture less and less of how HongKongers actually spend.

To understand Hong Kong’s economy, we must look beyond shop counters, shopping malls, and headline retail numbers. Things changes according to technology-driven factors.

The city is not necessarily spending less.

It is simply spending elsewhere, different, and more creatively than ever be.

1. 前言

香港的零售銷售正在下降。

每個月，報章的經濟版都以此為頭條。

讀者自然聯想到最壞的情況：

「經濟正在惡化。」

然而，這樣的結論過於簡化。

零售數字確實反映了一部分現象，但並不能呈現整個故事。

香港的消費模式正在急速改變。科技普及、跨境選擇增加、生活方式轉變，以及全新的消費習慣，都正在重塑人們花錢的方式。

人們不是「花得更少」。而是「花得不一樣」。

而且，許多現今最大宗的消費項目在零售統計中根本沒有出現，例如：

· 數碼訂閱服務· 線上娛樂· 旅遊與體驗活動· 健康與健身消費· 教育與專業課程· 醫療與健康服務

當消費從「購買商品」轉向「使用服務」時，零售銷售自然下降。但這並不代表經濟在收縮——它可能正在轉型。

2. 零售統計實際上在衡量什麼

香港特區政府統計處把零售業分為 19 類零售類別，包括：

· 超級市場· 百貨公司· 珠寶、鐘錶及名貴禮品· 電器及其他耐用消費品· 家具及裝置· 服裝· 鞋類及配件· 西藥及化妝品· 中藥及草本產品· 書報文具及禮品· 眼鏡店· 專門店內其他消費品· 汽車及零件· 燃料· 食品、酒類及煙草· 即時食用食品（無座位）／外賣店· 其他零售店· 非店舖零售（網購／網店）· 其他類別之零售

這些類別主要衡量的是商品銷售。因此，它們完全沒有包含迅速增長的「服務消費」，也忽略了大量「跨境消費」的遷移。

這就是為什麼零售銷售逐漸只能反映香港消費的一小部分。

3. 為何零售銷售下跌——卻不代表經濟崩壞

（I）消費習慣正在改變，傳統零售自然受壓

香港人的購物方式已與以往大不相同。

·       電動車普及削弱燃料銷售

「燃料」是零售統計中的一個類別。當越來越多人駕駛電動車，汽油需求下降，零售數字自然下滑——這並不是不景氣，而是轉型。

·       購物不再是休閒娛樂

極簡生活與可持續理念盛行，人們買得少，但買得更好。

·       商品耐用度提升，替換周期拉長

手機、家電、奢侈品都更耐用，家庭與個人不再頻密替換。

·       跨境網購急速增加

Taobao、京東、Amazon、小紅書、Temu 都直接送到家門口。但只要賣家不是香港本地企業，這些交易就不會計入香港的零售統計。

銷售「被轉移」，零售數字自然下跌。

這些變化並不表示香港人變窮，而是花得更精明、選擇更多元。

（II）消費正在「流出」香港

跨境消費已成為重大力量。

·       旅遊恢復 → 海外購物自然增加

日本、韓國、泰國成為香港人的「新購物街」。

·       深圳效應

周末消費習慣已改變：按摩、咖啡店、商場、理髮、晚餐……價格只是香港的一半甚至更低。

深圳已成為香港的「延伸購物區」。

·       跨境電商不計入零售統計

香港人在線購物愈多，零售數字愈低——但 實際消費從未減少。

（III）旅客消費模式改變

香港 2000 年代的零售繁榮，很大程度依靠：

· 內地旅客· 奢侈品購物· 珠寶、鐘錶、護膚品

但今日的旅客已不同。

• 他們更偏好體驗，而非購物

• 香港與內地的價格差距收窄

• 東南亞旅客增多，但奢侈品消費較低

奢侈品佔香港零售比重極高，一旦冷卻，整體零售就被拉低。

這反映的是旅遊結構變化，而非經濟衰退。

（IV）香港的消費結構正在轉向服務

香港正由「買東西」走向「買服務」。

人們把更多錢投入：

· 醫療與保健· 教育與補習· 健康與身心管理· 旅遊與酒店· 專業服務

但這些都不會納入零售統計。

·       餐飲亦出現跨境分流

在理論上，餐飲應屬「人們願意花錢的服務」。但現實是：

大量餐飲消費流向深圳，

另一部分則轉向家中烹飪或外賣平台。

餐飲需求沒有減少，

只是離開了香港本地商戶。

因此，零售下跌反映的是「經濟再分配」，而不是「經濟下滑」。

4. 結論（CONCLUSION）

零售下跌，不再等同經濟疲弱。

它呈現的是一個全新的故事：轉變，而非崩壞。

香港的零售數字下降，是因為：

· 消費者跨境購物· 消費從商品轉向服務· 網購進口繞過本地零售· 旅客結構改變· 數碼生活取代實體消費

零售銷售曾是可靠的經濟指標。但今天，它只能反映香港消費的一小部分。

要真正理解香港經濟，

我們必須跳出商場、人流與零售額，從科技、跨境選擇與生活方式的角度重新審視。

香港並不是花得更少。

而是把錢花在不同的地方，以更靈活、更創新的方式花錢。